By Sam Clarke | Not Valid For Ontario
Published on 18 April 2025 | 08:21 - Updated on 21 May 2025 | 06:38
Recommended Bets: Maple Leafs vs Senators
On Sunday, April 20, at 7:00 PM EDT, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will face off at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto for Game 1 of their first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The game will be broadcast live on Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS, and ESPN2.
The Maple Leafs head into the playoffs on a high after managing to beat the Red Wings 4-3 in an overtime battle on Thursday night. It’s been a strong finish to the season, with stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner hitting big milestones and leading the charge. In net, Anthony Stolarz has been rock solid, shutting teams out and giving Toronto a real sense of stability heading into the postseason.
The Senators also had a close game to end out the season. They beat the Hurricanes 7-5 and are sitting on 97 points. They handled the Maple Leafs well during the regular season, winning all three matchups and keeping Toronto’s offense quiet. Ottawa’s defensive game has been sharp, and Linus Ullmark has held it down between the pipes when it matters most.
This is the first time these two have met in the playoffs since 2004, and the rivalry still has plenty of bite. With both teams stacked with talent and looking to make a statement, Game 1 is shaping up to be a must-watch.
Our Selected Prediction for the Match
Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals
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Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction: Best Odds
The best odds for the Toronto Maple Leafs to win, for a draw or for the Ottawa Senators to win are shown in green.
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Stats
- The Ottawa Senators dominated the 2024–25 regular season series, winning all three matchups against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The scores were 3–0 (Nov 12), 2–1 (Jan 25), and 4–2 (Mar 15), marking Ottawa's first season sweep over Toronto since the early 2000s.
- Toronto averaged 3.26 goals per game during the regular season, surpassing Ottawa's 2.95. However, in their head-to-head matchups, the Senators outscored the Leafs 9–3.
- Toronto's Anthony Stolarz led with a 2.14 GAA and a .926 save percentage, while Ottawa's Linus Ullmark posted a 2.72 GAA and a .910 save percentage.
- Both teams boast strong power plays with Toronto at 24.8% and Ottawa at 23.7%. However, their penalty kills are nearly identical, with Toronto at 77.9% and Ottawa at 77.7%.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction: Market Selection
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Our Betting Recommendation
Toronto should come out swinging. Playing at home and with a point to prove after dropping all three games to Ottawa in the regular season, the Leafs are expected to push the pace from the start. With Matthews, Marner, and Nylander leading the charge, this team knows how to create chances when the pressure is on.
But that aggression opens the door for Ottawa to hit back. The Senators have been patient and effective on the counter, and with Ullmark in net, they don’t need to dominate to stay in the game. That said, Toronto’s firepower and recent form should eventually take over, especially with the energy of Scotiabank Arena behind them. We expect an open game with chances at both ends, but the Leafs should have too much in the tank.
Our betting recommendation: Maple Leafs to win and over 3.5 goals. Prediction: 5–2 Toronto.
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